Tuesday, May 22, 2012

If Greece Falls will Portugal Follow? Should We Care? By Randy Ataide

There is a widespread belief that the Eurozone crisis has little impact on those of us in North America. It is tempting from a non-European perspective to say that these issues don’t affect us, or that they really are none of our business. Let the Europeans deal with European problems as we have enough trouble of our own, we may say. (Sounds almost like a bible verse!) What possible impact can a collapse in the Spanish real estate market have on us? A devastating Italian earthquake? Greeks withdrawing hundreds of millions of Euros from their banks in a single day? These may be interesting pictures on the news, but not really anything that impacts the issues affecting us in San Diego, Vancouver, or Fresno.

I think this is a mistaken and potentially dangerous impression, created only by our refusal to look deeper into the interrelationships between the rest of the world and our own corner of the world, no matter where that is. Do you have an account at JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America or Citibank, each with huge loans and reinsurances to European investments? Do you attend a university or college that has its endowment invested in Europe? Is your retirement fund invested in global companies such as G.E., Apple or Intel with large European markets or operations? Does your life insurance company have exposure in Europe? Odds are the answer for many of us to these questions is ‘yes.’

There has been much written about the rapidly escalating political, economic and social crisis in Greece in the past weeks, as the country’s populace appears fully prepared to ignore solemn warnings about the implications of rejecting the terms previously negotiated for continued funding of Greek debt. After several years of austerity, many Greeks seem to be content to watch the playing out of an epic game of “chicken”—on the one hand, they minimize the dangers and pain and turmoil awaiting their exit from the European Union and on the other hand they seem to insist that the Union will somehow not let them go their own way apart from the rest of Europe.

What about the rest of the so-called “peripheral nations” of the EU, including Portugal? Would a Greek departure signal a similar course of action for Portugal and Ireland or eventually the much larger nations of Spain or Italy? Should people of other countries even care about this? After all, we have plenty of problems of our own, right?

It is here that the Portuguese national character will likely serve them well. The solutions to these difficult problems that have ensnared both sides of the Atlantic will take significant time to resolve, likely much longer than most are predicting. But to the credit of the Portuguese, I predict that they will survive this massive and deepening crisis. Their national character is patient, contemplative and ordinarily non-volatile, and will likely be a refreshing and sharp counterpoint to others who advocate dramatic, combative and possibly even violent actions. Unlike many others, they are often not as easily swayed by fiery political rhetoric but rather put current difficulties into a much longer view of history and life.

Fado it seems may in this instance assist the Portuguese in the new and very important context of globalization.

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